Letter to the editor: Howard Sierer’s “U.S. Temperatures Unchanged Since 2005”
Last week, I read Howard Sierer’s letter “U.S. Temperatures Unchanged Since 2005.” I couldn’t resist the temptation of checking out the data.
After going to the website he cited, I downloaded the data sets (I think they were the correct ones) and ran some basic statistics. Now, I’m not a mathematician, but I do remember some basic statistics from high school.
What I found is that, using the data set I downloaded, from 2005 through 2018 — 2019 isn’t over yet so a complete data set for this year is not available — the average temperature did actually rise. Did buildings catch on fire due to the increase? No, not unless they were in front of a fast-moving wildland fire.
Over that period, the average temperature increased 0.742 degrees Fahrenheit. Using the rules of numerical rounding, that value would be 0.74 degrees Fahrenheit or 0.4 degrees Celsius, I think that’s correct. That’s a little more than zip, nada, nothing.
I know, it’s less than one degree. So what’s the big deal, you ask? Given that NASA — you know, the rocket science folks — states that our global temperature is rising between 0.15 and 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, seems this might be important.
Howard did state that many of the stations recording temperatures are located near cites, which act as heat islands. So I went to another data source, one I’m familiar with from my past profession.
Located away from the heat island of St. George is the White Reef Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS), located near Leeds, Utah. These stations (there are several thousand of these across the country) are maintained to strict standards and are monitored by the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
After downloading the data and running the same analysis I used on the data Howard cited, I found the following: The average temperature between 2005 and 2018 was 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit. This represented an average temperature increase of 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the 14-year period. And more interesting, I’d suggest, is that since 2014 the average temperature increased 1 degree Fahrenheit. That’s about 0.5 degrees Celsius. I knew there was a reason I was using more electricity in the past several years.
Now, I probably wont live long enough to experience the global dystrophy that the folks running the weather models are forecasting. But I, like many of you, have children and grandchildren who may or will experience the impacts of what they are forecasting! This should make you extremely upset and cause you to scream from your homes, “I mad as hell and I’m not going to take this anymore!” More importantly, I’d suggest, is voting your concern.
Now, if Howard was trying to see if folks were paying attention, well, good on ya. It caught my eye.
—Mark Rosenthal, Leeds
The viewpoints expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Independent.
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Thanks for doing the research. Next question is critical. Is Carbon the culprit or perhaps something else? I think it is a slam dunk global temps are going up. The 99% of scientist argument is also not true. Yes there is a correlation, but there is a better correlation if one examines solar variations. Regardless, game theory and geo political factors point to the conclusion that trying to reverse the situation is unlikely. So YOU GOT TO GET IN TO GET OUT. Logic dictates technology is the only answer. Ask Spock.
Thanks for your reply to Mr. Sierer’s article on global warming. Here is another reply.
In his article, Mr. Sierer states: “For more technically inclined readers, a scientific paper discusses using CRN data to adjust historical temperature data.”
His referred to “scientific paper” is actually a blog in Climate Etc., which is written by Dr. Judith Curry. Therefore it is not peer reviewed scientific publication and therefore Dr. Curry can write whatever she wishes. “In 2019 she stated that she would not “bother with” peer-reviewed journals, in favor of publishing her own papers so that she could editorialize and write what she wanted.”
According to a Scientific American interview, Dr. Curry admits to receiving funding from the fossil fuel industry. This article also labeled her a “climate heretic.” Climate Feedback, a climate change fact checker, debunked much of Curry’s testimonials. Other sources, such as Skeptical Science labeled Judith Curry as a “Climate Misinformer.” She is also cited in a Pants on Fire claim by Politifact.
So, Mr. Sierer, it seems that your scientific article is highly biased and is supported by corporations who have a vested interest in denying global warming evidence.
Furthermore, using a longer time range then just the past 15 years, you would see a 150+ year of sporadic, but consistently upward changes in global temperatures. Within this longer time span there are significant intervals in which global temperatures remain relatively constant. Therefore, if your intent is to mislead, you can pick a number of time intervals for which there is no increase, but over the long term each of these “flat” intervals is at a higher temperature level.
Considering the strong possibility that this temperature increase is directly related to human activity over the past 150+ years, I’ll wager you can think of some other increases in human activity that would nicely parallel the rising temperature. Pop quiz next Monday…
See the diagram in this article from the Independent from March 2018.
http://suindependent.com/global-warming-human-activity-climate-change/