2023: Fearless Prognostications

2023: Fearless Prognostications

– By Ed Kociela –

As sure as the sky is blue and water is wet, you can bet that 2023 will be one for the books.

For what it’s worth, here’s what I see in the crystal ball.

Politics: We are already hip-deep in the internecine squabbling on the right over the anointing of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker of The House. McCarthy, the erstwhile House member from California, is willing to do backflips to get the gig, something, according to the most recent polls a great deal of American voters and numerous members of the Republican Party oppose.

It is pathetic, really, to see him do the ugly contortions that he is bending to in an effort to succeed Rep. Nancy Pelosi, whose spiky little stilettos will be tough to fill.

As much as the GOP would like to politicize this thing, it is clearly a family feud among those on the right. The Democrats need do nothing but sit on the sidelines and watch as the GOP gnaws its paw off.

The prediction: After much theatrics, drama, and a news cycle that could be quite damaging, McCarthy will get the nod and become the next Speaker of the House. He will soon learn to be careful of what he wishes for because this will not be all kitty cats, and unicorns. The hard right will be holding him up to a standard that, even for McCarthy, is probably unfair, and the political tightrope he will walk will always have a noose on one end.

President Jail Bird: The Department of Justice will continue to move at glacial speed as it evaluates the House report on the Jan. 6 insurrection. Look, when it comes to most of us, very few are capable of parsing out the nuances of law at play here. Yeah, those on the left burn with the desire to see Donald Trump do the perp walk in prison orange while those on the right are dusting off their MAGA caps for a third run at the White House. But, to be honest, we are mostly over our heads in the tall weeds of confusion, guided simply by what we hope will happen rather than what the fine lines of the law suggest. Federal law is more loosely defined than the civil law our local courts adjudicate. Plus, we also, despite all of the pleas for justice and equity, run it all through a political filter.

The prediction: We know that U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland is precise, fair, and unconcerned about public opinion because of his healthy respect for the law. My heart hopes Garland moves quickly with charges against Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, and others among the West Wing Weasels who orchestrated the Jan. 6 domestic terror attack. My brain tells me to hang on because it will be at least a couple of months before any charges are filed on the federal level. However, we must remember that there are also a fair number of charges being pondered in New York and Georgia that are equally serious and could result in Trump being ineligible to serve in any elected office.

Cyber communications: Social media and the communications industry, in general, will continue to explode at breakneck speed in many directions.

The prediction: Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter will drive its membership numbers down while Triller will soar as a celebrity-driven site. Facebook will hold its bedeviling stranglehold on all of us with even more confusing analytics. Instagram will continue to grow at an explosive pace, but TikTok? Despite the negative vibes surrounding it, TikTok will become even more engrained in our social media fabric. But, the real winner? Individual podcasts. They are easy to produce, can cover a variety of niche spaces in the cyber world, and will carve out a surprisingly large slice of the media pie. Yes, there is the possibility of further divisiveness along political and cultural lines. Still, it all goes back to the laws of supply and demand, and, regretfully, we are demanding more and more that we find media that support and defend our own personal, private selves. Our culture is not only growing more comfortable with this widening chasm, but it demands it. Forget terrestrial radio and, in many cases, satellite radio. Put your money into the burgeoning podcast industry. Satellite news outlets? A hot mess that will only get worse before it gets better, whether it is CNN, Fox, or MSNBC.

The economy: Let’s face it, the economy has been in the dumpster. Most of the problems were inherited, but Biden also carries a bit of the weight.

The prediction: It will recover. There will be more bumps in the road, to be sure, and job numbers will not be reflective of the true state of the economy. I mean, adding service jobs is hardly on par with adding high-tech jobs. It will be slow and painful with in all probability, a bit of a recession by summer. But, the economy will solidify and turn around without too much pain. It always turns around because it is based on the long term rather than the volatile short term. By the end of the year, it should be back to normal.

Our culture: Are we close to wiping out hate and bigotry?

The prediction: There is a reason why there are so few people of color in your neighborhood, there is a reason why there are so few people of a different religion in your neighborhood, there is a reason why there are so few members of the LGBTQ community in your neighborhood. We cannot expect hate and bigotry to disappear without putting forth effort, just as we cannot expect violence to disappear as long as we make guns so readily available. We cannot expect any changes until we seek a world of peace, love, and harmony. Some things never change.

Politics, Part II: While on the stump, Joe Biden talked about being a “transitional” president whose primary job was to return the United States to a sense of normalcy after the Trump years. Even his detractors would have to admit he has fulfilled that promise. Now it is in the best interests of the nation for him to gracefully bow out. I am not an ageist, but the man’s best years are behind him. There are a couple of ways he can do this, of course. He could resign and give us our first woman president in Kamala Harris. I am unsure how well she would do in a finale against whoever the Republicans decide to run, but that is certainly a viable option. Or, he could run out his term and allow the Democrats to go head-to-head to pick another standard bearer. Gavin Newsom, the energetic young California governor, pops into mind first, followed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, both of whom would appeal more to party centrists in a certain Joe Biden way.

The prediction: Joe Biden is a political animal. He loves the give and take, the rolling up of sleeves, and hammering out a solution to our most vital issues. But, this decision will not be made by Joe Biden. It will come, I believe, at the behest of his lovely and perceptive wife Jill who will advise that he has seven grandchildren who he positively adores. My money says he will hang it up at some point this year. Should he decide not to run, he will wait awhile to prevent being a lame-duck president. But should he decide to resign, look for a late summer announcement.

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