Straight Talk about the COVID-19 Vaccine
With the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines in Southern Utah, we’ve seen folks expressing frustration at not being in the first group, others placing undeserved blame in every direction, and at the national level, ineffective, politically-motivated actions. None of these acknowledge vaccine reality.
Start with the big picture.
Today’s nationally-available vaccines, one from Pfizer and the other from Moderna, use a new technique called messenger-RNA to immunize the body against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Both are about 95 percent effective and both are being used in Southern Utah.
The vaccine production process is new, requiring raw materials like specialty lipids that have never been produced in large quantities before. Scaling up production of the necessary ingredients is underway but for now limits the rate at which vaccines can be made available.
A Scientific American article describes these challenges in detail.
Anticipating increases in raw ingredient production, Pfizer increased its worldwide 2021 vaccine production goal to 2 billion doses; Moderna raised its 2021 vaccine production to 600 million doses with hopes to grow that to as many as a billion. The federal government plans to buy enough vaccine to inoculate 300 million Americans with two doses each.
Given the challenges of scaling up production, Pfizer can be sure of delivering only 70 million of its doses for the U.S. by June 30th with the balance delivered through the summer. Moderna’s vaccine production likewise is slowly ramping up. Vaccines from Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca and Novavax may become available this spring.
President Biden announced his COVID-19 “national strategy” this month with great fanfare and media attention. But a closer look shows that it contains little that will speed the rate at which Americans will be vaccinated.
The New York Times explains that “There are simply not enough doses of authorized vaccines to meet the enormous demand. And that is not likely to change for the next few months.”
The Times notes that the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act to speed vaccine development during Operation Warp Speed when doing so was helpful. The Times politely points out that Biden’s plan to use the act now is meaningless: “Using the Defense Production Act will not significantly increase supply, although every little bit could help. That’s because manufacturing facilities are already at or near capacity, and there is a worldwide race to develop vaccines that use a finite amount of resources.”
Biden promised 100 million vaccinations in his first 100 days in office, another meaningless promise that will be easily met since vaccinations were already reaching about one million per day before he was inaugurated.
Biden’s “national strategy” is pure political theater with little change to what was already in progress thanks to Trump’s Operation Warp Speed.
Warp Speed gave states responsibility to plan for vaccinating their citizens and states were allocated an additional $8 billion by Congress in December to fund their efforts.
States like Connecticut, West Virginia and North and South Dakota have focused on getting the maximum number of their citizens vaccinated, administering as much as 80 percent of vaccine received. Laggard California focused instead on “vaccination equity” among racial and ethnic groups and as a result has used less than 50 percent of vaccine received. How many Californians will die as a result?
New York’s Governor Cuomo blamed the federal government for failing to “coordinate” the vaccination process (whatever that means), but by mid-January even laggards New York and California had plenty of vaccination sites.
Nonetheless, Biden has asked for $20 billion in additional state aid on top of the $8 billion appropriated in December. He proposes to spend some of this on unneeded federal vaccination centers that will be given vaccine supplies that had been targeted for the states, creating misallocations and confusion.
Despite a “national strategy” with no substance, expect a steady drumbeat of media coverage in the coming year giving Biden undeserved credit for overcoming COVID-19 when the recovery process was already in place when he took office.
Turning to Southwest Utah, limited vaccine supplies will make the rollout far slower than anyone would like. As of late January, our Southwest Utah Public Health Department was receiving about 2000 doses per week, allowing for an average of 1000 new recipients per week since a second dose is required to make the vaccine fully effective for those who’ve received their first dose.
Our health department deserves credit for organizing more than enough qualified persons to administer the vaccine: today’s vaccination rate is limited only by the number of doses the department receives each week.
The department gets kudos for establishing a reservation web site to provide a measured, steady flow of vaccination recipients in contrast to come-one-come-all sites around the country that ended up with long lines and wait times measured in hours.
Nonetheless, the number of anxious, local folks wanting to sign up overwhelmed the first web site server. Hoping to prevent this, the department at first was opaque about when the site would be open. When it was opened and all slots were filled on a Monday morning rather than in the “early afternoon” as advertised, many vaccination hopefuls understandably felt cheated.
This mad rush should have been anticipated just like seating for a concert or other limited-attendance event. We’ve endured a lot over the past 10 months and we’re understandably impatient. Anyone who has ever been stuck in an airport understands that not knowing why your plane is delayed or how long you will have to wait can be harder to take than the wait itself.
In response, the department took steps to move its reservation site to a more robust server and is being more up front with the reservation process.
So, hang in there Utah. Our state and local officials have done better than most in unprecedented circumstances, administering well over the nationwide average of 50 percent of doses received. Our current frustrations will dissipate as more vaccine becomes available through the spring and summer.
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Howard,
I have hope that all entities involved in the vaccine rollout are doing the best they can. The predicament we are in right now is most definitely a new challenge for the world.Seniors who have limited access to a computer trying to make appointments online, to those who are administering the shots, and the scientists who tirelessly developed the Covid-19 vaccine, we are all challenged right now.
The local health department, as well as our state and federal health employees are working hard to get us all vaccinated.
Please refrain from making our current situation a political mishap.
We are all looking forward to spending time with our loved ones. Many of us are grieving the loss of those connections, and MANY others are grieving the LOSS of family members and friends due to Covid -19.
Others are sick at home missing work and necessary income to support their families.
Please show some compassion, or even better, get out there and volunteer rather than sitting at your computer criticizing those who are actively working towards a better situation.
Stacy, thank you for your thoughtful and compassionate comment. My intent was to point out that vaccine production is the limiting factor and will be for months to come. Pfizer and Moderna scientists worked miracles and the companies are doing all they can to expand production but it will take time…and patience on our parts.
President Biden and the liberal media are the ones who have politicized the vaccine rollout process, making completely unfounded claims that his “national strategy” is somehow a big improvement over the Operation Warp Speed he inherited. My intent was to debunk that obvious politicization.
Please note that I complimented our local health department that I agree is doing its best and doing quite well. My comments about the web server were prompted by the many online complaints about the first week’s signup problems and I noted that the problems seem to have been resolved. Let’s all pray for continued success, both locally and nationally.