A Tough Year for Centrist Democratic Incumbents
– By Howard Sierer –
For centrist Democratic incumbents in competitive Congressional districts, 2022 is looking more and more like they’ll need to find other work. A number have already bowed out while others who plan to run choose not to mention their party in campaign ads.
With the Democratic Party taken over by its radical-left, progressive wing and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s iron-fisted demands for lockstep voting on all leftwing legislation by every party member in the House of Representatives, centrist Democrats realize that they are alienating voters in their districts back home.
With few exceptions, the president’s party loses House seats in midterm elections. Obama’s blowout loss of 63 seats in 2010 was a record-setter in recent elections. While no one is expecting a Democratic loss of that magnitude, a combination of redrawing congressional districts to reflect the 2020 Census coupled with unpopular radical-left legislation during this term bodes ill for Democratic centrists’ prospects.
The 2020 Census was bad news for Democrats in two ways. First, Congressional seats are being added in Republican-leaning states and disappearing in Democratic-leaning states. Second, and despite Biden’s win, Republicans added to their majorities of governorships and statehouses.
As a result, Republicans will have complete control of redrawing 187 congressional district maps while Democrats will control only 75. The remaining 173 seats are in states where power is split, a commission is in charge of redistricting or the states have only a single House seat.
With only a slim nine-seat House majority, Democrats’ 2020 state and local losses are coming home to roost.
Incumbents in both parties usually have name recognition and fundraising advantages. Yet Alexi McCammond reports in Axios that “A growing swath of House Democratic candidates says the party needs to radically improve its heartland appeal to have any hope of keeping power in Washington.”
McCammond notes that increasing numbers of Democrats are running without mentioning their party affiliation. Setting an example for other Democrats, incumbent Sen. Tim Ryan of Ohio never mentions his party in a 3-minute campaign ad.
In an ad for her state’s new Congressional seat, Montana Democrat Monica Tranel runs away from her party saying in the ad, “So many people I grew up with don’t vote for Democrats anymore.” In explaining her predicament, she says, “They feel like Democrats look down on rural America.”
Prospective Democratic candidates who might otherwise seek to replace retiring incumbents in these centrist districts see 2022 as a risky year to throw their hats in the ring. Why not wait until 2024 when prospects may improve?
Utah has its own version of House redistricting drama this year. A new Utah Independent Redistricting Commission was approved in 2018 by voters including me. Per its website, “the Commission is a bipartisan group composed of seven commissioners – appointed by both Democratic and Republican party leaders – with the chair appointed by Utah’s governor.”
“The Commission’s job is to recommend maps of congressional, state senate, statehouse, and state school board districts for final consideration by the Legislature.” Utah’s heavily Republican legislature can accept one of three plans submitted by the commission or “create final maps of its own.” And there’s the rub.
Utah’s legislature is already at work on its own redistricting boundaries. Much of Utah’s population growth between 2010 and 2020 has been in Republican-leaning suburbs, diminishing the influence of Democrats’ Salt Lake City stronghold. Nonetheless, expect Democrats to cry foul if the legislature ignores the commission and adopts its own plan.
As reported in the Deseret News, “Congressional boundaries will be the biggest battle of the [Utah] redistricting wars. Republicans will argue, somewhat persuasively, that each congressional district should include some urban, suburban, and rural components. This ensures that all members of the delegation are concerned about both urban and rural issues.”
“Democrats will argue, also persuasively, that because Democrats routinely win more than 25% of the vote in Utah, they should certainly get one congressional seat. It’s gonna be messy, and control of the U.S. House of Representatives could hang in the balance. The political intrigue will be thick.”
The redistricting fun and games that follow every new Census will play out across the country again this year. By enacting ever more radical-left progressive legislation, Congressional Democrats find themselves increasingly out of touch with increasing numbers of voters, including many members of their own party.
It’s going to be a tough year to be a centrist Democratic incumbent.
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Unlike your sir, even at 76 years old, I still have faith in the American voting public. We cannot and must not adhere to alternative facts and the REAL facts are these. The GOP, en masse, has decided to deny their own words following the January 6 attack on our capital, in which most of them, on multiple media sites, CLEARLY AND UNEQUIVOCALLY laid the blame for the attack on the leader of their own party but are now trying to re-write history, blaming Pelosi for the insurrection. “WE THE PEOPLE”, in the November 2022 mid-terms will be tasked with one absolute necessity. We must tell these GOP’ers who have decided that remaining in power is more important than upholding their oath upon taking office to “PROTECT AND DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION” that their services to the people of this country are no longer required. If we do not do that, and we continue to allow them to try turning this country into a fascist state, with a narcissistic, self-serving leader who continues to lie to us at every turn for his own benefit, then we deserve anything that these people decide to do to us.
And one last thought sir. In my 50 plus years of voting for both democrats and republicans, I have never, ever heard one single democrat state what your GOP leaders, starting with Mitch have clearly stated….that their number one goal is to stop anything that the sitting president of their opponent’s party wants to accomplish or, in the case of the Obama administration, using all of their efforts to making sure he was just a one term president. This is the very definition of the total obstructionist agenda of the current members of the GOP in congress.
Whethet I agree or disagree with this article or the subsequent comment made is irrelevant herein this comment.
Dear Michael Super – consider contacting Josh W. of the Independent and writing your own guest opinion pieces. Your voice is unique.and at 76 years old, no doubt you have wisdom to share.
I do appreciate what you are saying sir but I think I will pass on that idea. While there are certain times and certain events that really pull my chain and convince me to write stuff, without trying to sound too self-deprecating, I don’t think that I am particularly all that fluent in the language of trained, experienced writers. But thanks again.