Blue States Shrink, Red States Grow
– By Howard Sierer –
Americans are a restless people, always ready to move on – physically or mentally – to what they see as a better opportunity.
Our country was founded by immigrants seeking a better life: leaving oppressive, stifling governments, seeking religious/social freedom and economic opportunities on a new frontier unavailable to them where they were.
These emigrants from the “old world” were the more energetic, risk-taking folks. Those who stayed put were either trapped by their circumstances or satisfied with the status quo. This same phenomenon is abundantly evident today as Americans are moving from blue states to red states.
Blue states, increasingly governed by so-called progressive ideas, have become places where radical social and economic experiments are foisted off on their citizens.
Progressives have presided over a decline in public safety that can be attributed to defunding police, eliminating bail for most defendants, and district attorneys who refuse to prosecute many crimes. Crime-ridden Chicago’s newly-elected city administration proposes to cut its police budget by 9% a year through 2027 to “prevent violence and bring true safety” through new social programs.
The progressive solution to failing public schools: stop administering standardized achievement tests and adopt lower graduation requirements.
The latest progressive idea from California: a commission appointed by Gov. Newsom recommended that the state pay $800 billion – up to $1.2 million per person – to blacks as reparations for slavery, over-policing the war on drugs and health disparities.
The result in California and many other blue states: lots of citizens who want to escape overbearing governance and start over in places with better opportunities, just as their immigrant forebears did when leaving the old worlds of Europe and Asia.
Comparing U.S. Census Bureau data for 2021 and 2022 shows the continuing migration of “energetic, risk-taking” folks out of blue states: California lost 350,000 residents, New York lost 180,000, Illinois lost 140,000, New Jersey lost 64,231, Massachusetts lost 57,292, and Pennsylvania is down 39,957.
Where did these people go? Mostly to red states: Texas grew by 470,708 while Florida added 444,484 residents. Other gainers: North Carolina grew by 99,796, South Carolina by 84,030, and Georgia by 81,406. Utah gained 41,687, ninth in population growth.
U-Haul data backs up the Census report. The company’s top eight states for receiving one-way truck rentals: Texas, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona and Georgia. Utah was 12th.
Some might be tempted to explain away this migration entirely as people move from colder northern states to warmer southern states. While that certainly explains some migration, California’s population loss and the fact that every state surrounding Illinois had population growth illustrate that a warmer climate isn’t the primary motivator.
Instead, state governance goes a long way toward explaining the shift. California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors, while all the southern states in the Census data mentioned above, except North Carolina, have Republican governors.
Three factors loom large for those who migrate to another state: taxes, crime, and traffic.
A Californian’s top earnings are taxed at 13.3%; New York levies at a 10.75% rate, while New Jersey takes 8.82%. Florida, Texas and Tennessee take zero.
Crime is cited by many migrants as their motivation for relocating. New York City saw a record 4,500 police officers resign last year while many other so-called progressive cities like Seattle are having a very difficult time hiring new officers to replace those who quit or retired early.
Traffic plays an important part in decisions to move with commuters in Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and San Francisco spending the most hours per year commuting to work per U.S. News. While all are governed by Democrats, city size and geography are the dominant factors and mostly beyond city governments’ control.
Those of us here in Southern Utah live near what was formerly called the “Golden State,” California. The 1965 Mamas & the Papas hit song “California Dreamin” expressed the feelings of millions of Americans, including this one, who saw the state as the ultimate in living the good life. The sun, the beach, theme parks galore, Hollywood glamor. I’ve always said that San Diego has the best climate in the country.
What could go wrong? The answer from my perspective is one-party, progressive governance with its ever-higher taxes and a succession of mandated social experiments that somehow never achieve their stated goals only to be followed by new ones.
Many of us have friends and neighbors who’ve moved here from California in the last decade or two. Ask them why they’re no longer “California Dreamin.” Their answers in most cases will remind you why you’re here and not there.
Progressive elites are quick to praise the wonderful things their programs are accomplishing wherever they are implemented. But their narrative is completely undercut and refuted when citizens are willing to disrupt their lives and incur the expense of uprooting and moving to places more compatible with their dreams and aspirations.
