Massive Death Projections Wrong!

By Harold Pease, Ph. D.

When President Donald Trump mobilized a health squad to advise him and the nation on the seriousness of the coronavirus epidemic he was given projections of death vastly exceeding the number of Americans who died in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. Initially, these numbers were 2.2 million Americans. These later were reduced to 240,000. The latest IHME model, just out, has it at nearly 82,000 by August 1, 2020.

Now let’s be clear! All these numbers are unacceptable and involve real people: fathers, mothers grandparents and occasionally a child but always someone loved. Life matters. Any death is serious, of course, but this is only 20,000 more than death from the flu season of 2017-2018.

Why does this matter? Because it was these extreme projections of 2.2 million that were used as cause to shut down the economy and increase our indebtedness by perhaps $4 trillion dollars—an indebtedness more than all wars combined in American history.

What also concerns me is that most Democratic media outlets fed these panic-inducing death counts from day one, even before evidence confirmed them. They now seem almost disappointed 1) with these new lower numbers, 2) that a drug used to treat malaria, hydroxy-chloroquine, is able to treat also the coronavirus, and 3) that this crisis is going to go away far too early. Democrats still can not give Trump a win on managing this crisis. They loaded Congress’s 2 trillion dollar relief bill with pork that had nothing to do with the virus itself but did prolong passage of the bill designed to help millions of Americans desperately needing it.

My biggest concern, however, remains the weaponization of death projections seemingly to keep hysteria alive and well—and for what possible purpose? Who benefits from this hysteria? The media in modern history has never focused on the body count of cases of flu that take thousands of lives each year.

I am writing this on April 8, using the newly released death projections for April. By the time newspapers print this column on April 10 the projected death rate will be 22,239. By the time LibertyUnderFire subscribers read this April 14, deaths are projected to be 34,068. One week thereafter, April 17, it will be 43,279. By April 21 they are to be 54,857 By April 24, they are to be 62,089 and by April 28, they will be 68,938. Projections to Aug 1st will be 81,766 dead Americans. Deaths per day are to peak April 16 at 3,130 (IHME, COVID-19 Projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020, United States of America view at https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america). Readers can compare these numbers against reality as we approach these dates.

Still, the reduction of death by the panicked media is, for the rest of us, manna from heaven compared to the projections just 10 days before of 2.2 million dead Americans. The latest projected death in the United States of 82,000 in three months is unlikely to be reached. It might turn out to be even less than the 61,000 who died of influenza in the 2017-2018 season. Most of us may never know anyone who actually died from it. The body counts of the deceased did not lead the news every night causing us to hunker in our homes wondering if we would be next.

So here are the facts that are underreported or ignored by the panicked press The odds of you getting this virus are much smaller than the hype, “based on the population tested, … rates can vary from, at most, eight-tenths of a percent in New York City to two-one-hundredths of a percent in Phoenix.” The few, out of 330 million Americans, that actually get this virus at least 98% will recover from it. There are models showing 50% of the population may have already had it, never knew they had it, and recovered (“An Advantaged Disease, Indeed.” By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn, April 06, 2020). With these facts accurately reported it is unlikely that we would have shut down the economy.

They did not tell us of the 34,000 who died of influenza in last year’s 2018-2019 flu season, nor that we lose PER MONTH “about 54,000 Americans to heart disease; 50,000 to cancer; 14,000 to asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema; 12,000 to stroke; 10,000 to Alzheimer’s; 7,000 to diabetes; 5,600 to drug overdoses; and 4,700 to influenza and pneumonia.” These deaths give us over 157,000 deaths PER MONTH” and no-one shuts down the economy or cries out for a $2 Trillion stimulus package. Apparently only the coronavirus alerts the panic response.

Again all life matters and these too are horrifying unacceptable death numbers involving those we love. The media have no right to drive a panic without accurate, proportional (including the omissions noted above), supporting evidence that potentially could damage the economy beyond repair for years.

One piece of knowledge that would have helped reduce the media hysteria for young people is that only 7% of those who got it were under 50 years of age. We knew this early on. Allow them to return to work ASAP. Perhaps a better response to this epidemic would have been rather than shut down the economy, quarantine those over 65 and tell those younger not to visit them for a time.