McMullin Race Offers Opportunities for Down-Ballot Non-Republicans

McMullin Race Offers Opportunities for Down-Ballot Non-Republicans

Some opportunities only come along once in a lifetime. Some happen only every 25 to 50 years. For non-Republican candidates in Utah, an opportunity to win only happens roughly this frequently. But it’s happening now, and I’m not sure the message has made it out to all the voting populace.

So while you’ve likely heard something like “this is the most important election” every election cycle, hear me out on why this might be the most significant election cycle for non-Republican candidates and their supporters in Kane County, House District 69, and Utah, maybe ever…I’m looking at you, Kanab!

One of the principal reasons why this opportunity exists this year is independent Evan McMullin’s run for incumbent Republican senator Mike Lee’s seat. Polls show this race quite close and tightening over the course of the campaign. Now polls are often wrong. Yeah, I said it. Polls are commonly off by as much as 5%. It’s the nature of polling. And Lee’s numbers may have a bit of a “Trump Effect” where the amount of support for Lee is underreported because some may support Lee but be apprehensive to say so…or even answer a poll at all, thereby skewing the poll numbers against Lee. But it’s also possible it could work in reverse. That’s to say it’s possible pollsters may be missing a whole segment of voters who could come out in support of Mcmullin but aren’t being surveyed because they don’t fall into the “likely” voter category based on previous voting history or lack thereof. And that’s because there seems to be more interest in voting this year, and due to the Dobbs decision, it seems to motivate the young, female, and progressive-leaning voter. There has been increased voter registration in Utah, but there’s no doubt that Mcmullin would have to win a significant percentage of the Republican vote since Republicans make up almost exactly 50% of total registered voters in Utah.

Now Mcmillan‘s race is unique in that there is no Democrat in the race, and as you may know, the Utah Democratic party voted earlier this year to unite behind McMullin rather than put forth their own candidate, a move extremely controversial among the rank and file Democrats in Utah as many vocally protested the move. Some I’ve talked to have vowed not to vote for Mcmullin on principle, even with the unique opportunity to vote out an election-denying Trump cohort. We will see if these emotions win out or if a cooler, more pragmatic head prevails among these Utah Dems on election day. I have a feeling that in the end, they won’t waste their vote and will vote to oust Lee, who is currently being implicated in the January 6 attack on the Capitol.

And the McMullin race isn’t the only race in our area that many progressives should be excited about. Democrat Davina Smith seems to be running an incredibly strong and broad campaign for State House District 69. The last I heard, her campaign had raised over $160,000, which for our district is enormous. I have also seen significant signage for her opponent Republican Phil Lyman who currently holds the seat, showing he knows he is truly being challenged. District 69 (most of the old 62) was re-drawn in 2020 and considerably in the favor of a Democrat or non-Republican. This district not only has 19% native American voters but also now includes all of Moab and Grand County, areas with a considerable Democrat population.

And in scenic Kane County, Democrats have put up Pat Horning for Kane County Commissioner Seat B, which became more competitive when Camille Johnson joined as a write-in candidate, making it a three-person race. Horning has run what a Utah Democratic Party contact of mine described as “the most organized rural Democratic campaign I’ve seen this year.” His ads, signs, postcards, and social media presence have been more visible than his two opponents, with evidence being that he has raised the most of any County race this year, as of last reporting.

If the winds are blowing in Democrats’ favor because of the overturning of Roe versus Wade, if enough Utahns unite to dethrone Lee, if Davina has motivated Native, new, and old voters to support her, and if Pat Horning’s “Conservative Democrat” message has resonated with enough Kane County constituents from Big Water to Cedar Mountain, could it be the perfect storm that sweeps in non-Republicans this once in a lifetime? Well, that’s a lot of “ifs,” and there isn’t good polling data on any of these races being in a statewide election in, for what, 20 years…? So will moderate Republicans, Independents, and Democrats unite to make history in November? We shall see!

VOTE NOW! If you’re currently registered to vote you should have received a ballot in your mailbox last week. If not, but you’re currently eligible to vote in Utah, go to vote.utah.gov through October 28 to check or update your registration. After that, please contact your local county clerk’s office in person, and you can also register to vote on Election Day.

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