On the Cusp of World War III
– By Ed Kociela –
The saber-rattling over the horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine has given light to the fear of being on the brink of a third world war.
While it is good clickbait, something that will draw a lot of eyes to a story, the fact is that we have been on the cusp of World War III since the 1950s. We haven’t had a season of peace since the last battles in Korea.
We have had some gaps where troops have not faced off in anger, but truly, the wars have continued, whether in the fallout from the Cold War, which we thought, hopefully, would be the one and only moment of brinksmanship, to the killing fields of Vietnam to all of the other hotspots dotted across the globe, from Somalia, Chechnya, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and every other blot on humanity that has resulted in scarring and bloodshed. We just happen to be in a moment where the players garner bigger headlines and their arsenals are topped off with nuclear weapons.
There really should be no surprise in what Vladimir Putin is doing. He has been preaching the reunification of the old Soviet Union since taking power and hinting about how imminent it is with his not-so-cryptic “borders change” mantra. He has virtually quashed all opposition and changed the Russian constitution so he can continue on until 2036 when he will weigh in at a ripe old 84 years of age — if he makes it. That is, of course, a vital part. If the world’s economic powers decide to choke off all financial ties with anything remotely Russian — which would be the most effective way to force this rat back onto his nest — the oligarchy that supports his tenure could unceremoniously frog march him off to the nearest gulag. Or, Russia’s revolutionaries could do the job in one handy sweep of the Kremlin. Don’t expect the West to make a martyr out of this slimy old cur. All it would do is lift his esteem.
There is also a fair amount of surprise and ignorance as people express dismay at Putin’s murderous invasion. The world was being set up for this, particularly by Putin and his operative in the United States, Donald Trump, who he handled with extreme efficiency, to the point of the former president still not finding any fault with the Russian strongman.
Trump’s handlers groomed him well as he extolled the virtues of such, as he put it, “strong leadership.” Let’s face it, Trump did more to lend credence to this tin-horn dictator than the entire propaganda wing of the Kremlin.
Let’s also be clear that Putin is not your grandpa’s idea of an old-line, dirty rotten Commie bastard. He lays most of the blame for the break-up of the old Soviet Union on the Bolsheviks and took a turn to his own brand of iron-fisted rule. He worked the system from within, of course, because he had to after economic disaster befell more economic disaster and forced the collapse of the old Soviet Union. It wasn’t nukes or armies or political muscle that shut down the USSR, it was the collapse of a system that could not sustain when trading and existing in the free world. I mean, for God’s sake, back in the ‘60s we had to bail them out with wheat to ensure half the country did not starve to death. They simply could not pay the bills and compete on a worldly level thanks to a system that fed the politburo and elites for so long. Today’s Russia is built on somewhat firmer ground, but there is always the desire, particularly from Putin who skims off the top in just about every Russian venture, to push the greed. And, as anybody who has ever placed a bet knows, it is the greed that gets you. Hit a winning streak and you think it will never end, that the dough will keep rolling in. Except, luck always runs out and the house always wins. Putin has yet to realize this as he sits back counting his healthy stack of chips, both figuratively and literally.
He realizes, for example, that there are resources in Ukraine well worth exploiting.
But, he doesn’t realize that to mine those resources he will first have to virtually destroy the essence of the country.
He realizes that technologically, he has a vastly superior military.
But, he doesn’t realize that the Ukrainian people have a vastly superior resolve and seem willing to fight — to the last man, woman, and child — for their freedom.
He realizes, I think, that if his invasion broadens into Poland or Slovakia, the world would be loathed to engage him militarily.
But, he doesn’t realize that the world would and could, rightfully so, squash him like a bug should he dip one pink little toe into NATO turf, leaving Moscow nothing but embers before Putin could get his grubby little finger on the nuclear trigger.
The world may assume that Putin is a man gone mad.
I don’t think so.
I think he is a calculating little fox who knows his limits and isn’t afraid to push them ever so slightly in an effort to fulfill his self-prophecy of being the man who reunified the Soviet Union, taking his place in the middle of Red Square. He’s just about 70, the age where you start thinking about your legacy, about what you will leave behind. He’s got plenty of power, plenty of money, plenty of stature, but none of it matches an outsized ego that needs stroking.
Throw that on top of the heap of a world that has not seen true and lasting peace for more than a century and you can see how he is hoping to run the chessboard.
The problem is he has little to no respect for his opponent, which is why a concerted effort by the Ukrainians could put him in checkmate and send him home empty-handed.
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