The Republican Party faces a harrowing crossroads: take the path towards meaningful changes to their platform, inflammatory rhetoric, and potential voter demographic, or maintain the status quo and endanger their chances of capturing the White House ever again.
On a national level, public perception of the Republican Party is at devastatingly historic lows. In fact, a Gallup poll this year that asked how Americans felt about conservative policy goals reported “uncompassionate” beating “compassionate” 11 to 1. Similar polling studies have concluded that most Americans believe the Republican Party is out of touch and narrow-minded.
Despite being thinly veiled in patriotism and anti-political correctness, Trump and other so-called insurgent candidates’ polarizing rhetoric is actually tapping into something much, much darker. The narrative, which often feels like a drawn-out routine in megalomania and superiority, has an unambiguous tone of nativism, xenophobia, and sexism. The conventional political wisdom dictates that center-right candidates, such as Jeb Bush, will win the Republican base over time through the rigor and realism that supposedly grounds their policy positions. However, mainstream conservative ideas aren’t winning conservatives over this time around, the emotional appeals are. Succinctly put, candidates don’t need brilliant or even mediocre ideas to win over the Republican electorate anymore; they simply have to incessantly echo their voters bigoted paranoias.
So as not to appear too meek, Republican candidates are compelled to behave in an overly aggressive fashion. The inflammatory epithets that dominate the current Republican lexicon on issues such as immigration foster a tone that leaves many Americans feeling disenfranchised and alienated from the Republican Party.
Compromise has somehow become a dirty word for Republicans in the last decade. As Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban observed in a post to his Cyber Dust social media app, the Republican Party has effectively bullied their candidates into a debilitating prerequisite when running to get the thumbs up from the party: conform to every platform that the party subscribes to or risk being labeled unelectable, a “RINO”—an acronym for Republican In Name Only—or worse *gasp* face the wrath of Fox ‘News.’ Enfeebling dichotomy between all and nothing has and will continue to hamstring the Republican Party going forward.
The new face of the religious right: “Angry, marginalized and increasingly desperate” – Amanda Morcotte
Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. States in which their presidential candidates used to be able to count on large shares of electoral votes are now increasingly voting democratic. Vital states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa have moved, ideologically, closer to center-left, and it has crippled Republican candidates ability to secure the necessary electoral votes.
In the past, the Republicans mastered the ways of ideological reinforcement to like-minded people. Reiterating ideas to people that agree with you (for the most part, at least) would seem like an easy enough task, right? Well, Pew recently did a study that concluded a mere 32 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of their own party. Similarly, Pew concluded that Republican constituents are not likely to think their party “governs in an honest and ethical way.” To make things worse, the persuasive, inviting, noble, and inclusive essence that once attracted young people—a vital essence the party once had and needs, to win the white house—to their message is dead.
The average Republican voter is much older than the average Democratic voter in the United States. This means that a larger share of the individuals that have died since 2012 are voters the Republicans desperately need to win those vital swing states that they lost so badly in the 2012 bout.
Politico recently calculated that of the aggregate 61 million individuals that voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, about 2.75 million will be deceased by the time the 2016 presidential election rolls around. Accounting for new voters—barring some significant change to the voter participation and political landscape—the numbers suggest that the Democratic Party will likely gain a momentous 2.5 million voter advantage overall. Whichever Republican hopeful actually ends up the Republican nominee, he or she would have to win roughly 30 percent of the non-white vote to secure a successful 2016 bid. That’s nearly double the 17 percent that Mitt Romney was able to capture in his 2012 presidential bid. If I haven’t made it clear yet, marginalizing large portions of the electorate is the antitheses of what the Republicans need at this moment. The Republican message, or at least the one currently being translated to the American electorate, is failing.
The only person currently in the Republican presidential race that articulates and echoes the appropriate, compassionate ethos conducive to securing a Republican victory in 2016 is Ohio Governor John Kasich. His centrist positions on social issues (see his gay marriage answer at the first Republican debate) give him a broader appeal, and a more reasonable chance at a White House bid. Unfortunately, Mr. Kasich is struggling to maintain even 2 percent of the voter base, a number so meager that it’s within the margin of error.
The ever-growing rift in popularity between the two primary parties in American politics is stark enough at this moment that Joe Biden, who’s currently not even running for president, would beat any of the Republican hopefuls in a hypothetical head-to-head presidential matchup.
The death of the Republican Party I’ve spelled out for you would be an entertaining spectacle if the ramifications weren’t so dismal. The very fabric of our democracy is dependent on a multi-party system, a system wherein competing ideas and policy prescriptions are debated and compromises are reached. Donald Trump and his insurgent candidate colleagues have begun steering the party wildly down the road to capitulation. In doing so, they have not only spurred the self-immolation their Party, but the American people as well.
