The 2020 Census Is Bad News for Democrats

The 2020 Census Is Bad News for Democrats

Let the Congressional redistricting battles begin.

Over the last decade, Americans continued to move South and West and out of the Northeast and Midwest. For the most part, that’s bad news for Democrats.

The 435 seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned to the states by population. According to the Census Bureau, the country’s population stood at 331,449,281 on April 1^st, 2020. Doing the math, after the 2022 election each House member will represent about 762,000 citizens.

Democrats’ dilemma comes from which states gained population and which states lost. Texas will receive two more congressional seats next year, and five states – Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, and Oregon – will gain one congressional seat each. New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia will each lose one seat.

Per the Constitution, states draw their own election districts. They must conform to the Supreme Court’s “one person, one vote” ruling requiring “substantially equal legislative representation for all citizens.” Districts must also be drawn so as not to discriminate by race.

However, there is no prohibition against districts being drawn for political benefit.

While Republicans lost the presidency in 2020, Democrats were surprised when Republicans increased their already substantial majorities at the state level. Republicans have 23 state “trifectas” where they control the governorship and both legislative houses, up two from before the election. Democrats have 15.

As a result, Republicans will be in charge of drawing new maps in 187 congressional districts this year, compared with 75 for Democrats according to the Cook Political Report. The other seats are (1) in states where power is split, (2) a commission is in charge of the maps, or (3) the states have only a single House seat.

Looked at another way, the states gaining House seats currently have a total of 52 Republican and 37 Democratic seats today (counting open seats by the party that held them in November’s election). The states losing House seats currently have a total of 55 Republican and 94 Democratic seats.

States controlled by Democrats that are losing seats will draw new maps so as to create likely losses for currently-serving House Republicans. Nonetheless, states getting more seats already have a lot of House Republicans today while states with big Democratic caucuses are getting fewer seats.

New independent redistricting commissions could improve Democratic odds in Michigan and Colorado. But Democrats remain completely on the sidelines in Georgia, Texas, Florida and North Carolina.

The Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman said that “The reapportionment itself offers a very slight advantage to Republicans, but not nearly as large as their power to draw the maps.”

CNN’s Zachary Wolf explained the importance of state legislature control: “The political drawing of congressional districts is a key reason [Republicans] retained control of the House in 2012. It’s a large reason they retained control of many state legislatures in 2020.”

The three states with the largest House representations – California, Texas, and Florida – deserve special attention. California lost a House seat for the first time ever. Its skyrocketing cost of living, rampant social problems, and one-party politics are driving people from the state in increasing numbers.

Texas is likely to become the most important state politically in the coming decade. It voted for Trump twice and its Republican Senators Cruz and Cornyn were reelected with healthy margins. But a significant fraction of new move-ins in its largest cities is, unfortunately, bringing their liberal politics with them.

Florida, once a swing state, has moved well to the right with Republicans holding most statewide offices.

Reapportionment has ramifications for presidential contests in 2024 and 2028. States won by Trump gained five electoral votes and lost two for a net gain of three. Biden states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio – lost Electoral College votes to Texas and Florida: more good news for Republicans.

Texas will now have 40 Electoral College votes and Florida 30, making them second and third behind California. Expect Democrats to focus on Texas while downplaying Florida.

It’s far too early to call the 2022 elections but so far, my money is on Republican gains in the 2022 House of Representatives, hopefully sending Nancy Pelosi back to her old job as Minority Leader.

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