The 2030 Census: More Texas, Less California

The 2030 Census: More Texas, Less California

– By Howard Sierer –

For progressives who are looking for bright spots in last November’s disastrous losses to Donald Trump and to Republicans around the country, the 2030 census portends an even worse future. Blue states appear on track to lose as many as a dozen seats in the U.S. House − and with them, their Electoral College votes − after reapportionment is completed based on the 2030 Census.

Trump won more than 60% of the states, including all seven battleground states. Republicans also won both the U.S. House and Senate, control 27 governor’s offices and hold nearly 800 more state legislative seats than Democrats across the country. It’s clear that the country as a whole is more conservative than it was when Barack Obama won presidential terms in 2008 and 2012.

Two nonprofits, the left wing  Brennan Center for Justice and the nominally non-partisan American Redistricting Project, crunched the numbers last year and both came to conclusions that the road ahead will likely get rockier for progressives. The deep blue states of California (-4), New York (-3) and Illinois (-2) are forecast to lose clout in both the House of Representatives and the Electoral College. Blue states Oregon, Minnesota and Rhode Island are forecast to lose 1 each.

The likely winners will be Texas (+4) and Florida (+3) along with a single Congressional seat each in Idaho, Utah and Tennessee. I wrote about Utah’s prospects last year. Not every Congressional seat lost in blue states will necessarily become red in gaining states but Republican prospects will be noticeably enhanced.

For decades, progressives believed that America’s growing ethnic and racial diversity favored their own destiny. They saw the GOP as the party of old, white voters whose influence would naturally wane as time elapsed. Trump blew up that narrative, winning far more young and minority voters than most observers thought was possible. And the backstory on how that happened reveals trends that have yet to run their course.

Why does 2030 look so much worse for progressives?

This decade began with blue states under strict COVID lockdowns, while Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida were open. Those big GOP states were already easier places to start a family or business, and they handled the COVID crisis better, coming out of it with stronger economies and presenting a more attractive picture to Americans looking to migrate within the country.

Regulatory red tape and staggering housing costs are driving middle-class Americans out of the biggest blue states. If anything, the forecast for 2030 is an early warning: Unless Democrats get the cost of living under control, their biggest states will see their populations plunge in the next 25 years.

Blue states simply aren’t competitive with red states when it comes to making their states desirable destinations for ordinary homebuyers or employers in search of a business-friendly environment.

Texas’ economy is growing faster than the rest of the nation’s. Florida ranks No. 1 in higher education. Texas, Florida and Tennessee have no state income taxes and the cost of living in all those states gaining Congressional seats is relatively low. Republicans dominate both Florida and Texas − holding every statewide office in each state, strong majorities in the state legislatures and lopsided majorities of each congressional delegation.

Progressives may be tempted to blame their coming demographic misfortune on the warmer climates available in Texas and Florida. Despite the fact that California’s climate is seen by many as an ideal, it likely will be the biggest population loser with a significant number of its citizens moving to Idaho, Utah and other Mountain West states as well as Texas.

Will progressives recognize the need to modify their policies to better match voters’ aspirations? Or will they double down on today’s failing policies hoping that “better messaging” will convince the rest of us to see the progressive light? Beating the same, tired old drum will most likely leave them even farther from the majority they seek when 2030’s demographic reality results in an increasing conservative electorate.