Utah’s economic secret: population growth
Utah’s secret is out: The state’s economy has grown faster than the country has since 2010. The key factor? A rapidly growing labor force.
We have spectacular scenery, a benign climate, and ready access to a wide variety of outdoor activities. Those assets have been turned into an economic success story by a welcoming business climate and — most importantly — a rapidly growing, well educated workforce.
Utah has had the fastest-growing labor force of any U.S. state since January 2010 — a key ingredient for economic growth and one that provides an example for the nation as a whole as our country hopes to extend its recent expansion.
The state’s labor force — the number of people age 16 and over holding or seeking a job — has grown an average of 1.9 percent a year from 2010 through January 2018, more than triple the nation’s 0.6 percent pace, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
More workers generate more output. Income and consumer spending increase in parallel. These factors attract more employers and workers, fueling a virtuous cycle of growth.
The state’s economy has expanded an average of 2.8 percent a year since 2010, the year after the recession ended, outperforming the U.S. rate of 2.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department. Utah is on a roll, leaving much of the rest of the country behind.
Harvard University professor Dale Jorgenson specializes in estimating an economy’s growth potential. He notes, “Utah is a lesson to the rest of the country that demographics are quite important.”
Utah registered the highest birthrate among states again last year. Large families are encouraged by both The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and the Catholic Church, whose combined membership makes up a large majority of the state’s population.
Utah’s large families are often criticized by those who see them as a burden on the public purse. Instead of a burden, children from Utah’s strong families are a major asset since they give the state a large supply of young workers with strong local ties.
Utah also has strong rates of immigration from other states and countries. In 2017, almost half its population growth came from people moving in, fleeing states like California. Many new arrivals come because Utah is especially attractive for families with multiple children.
Population growth alone doesn’t guarantee growth unless the would-be workers have job skills. Utah’s workforce is more educated on average than the rest of the country’s, making it more productive and thus attractive to many employers.
This well educated labor pool has helped nurture a blossoming tech sector, much of it based in the Silicon Slopes area around Salt Lake City, Provo, and Park City. Southern Utah is beginning to see a tech spillover as companies are drawn to our unique surroundings and lifestyle.
Despite frequent complaints about the quality of Utah public education, our students score well on the ACT, and we have a high percentage of adults with college degrees.
Many factors affect growth, including business regulation, access to financing, and the quality of educational institutions. Employers say Utah is attractive on all these fronts.
The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the nation’s older people are expected to outnumber children by 2030. In contrast, Utah is likely to be an island of prosperity in a country slowed by too few workers supporting its rapidly growing elderly population.
So when you see young families with armloads of kids, thank them for our booming economy, one that is likely to continue leading the nation in economic opportunity.
The viewpoints expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Independent.
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Mr. Sierer puts for many economic arguments in favor of large families, asserting that they do so much good for Utah’s economy. It would be nice if Mr. Sierer would provide links to data that actually support his assertion. For those of us who like to see facts in support of opinions expressed, that would be very helpful and, in fact, necessary to be able to not only understand why he believes as he does but also to accept that position.
Lisa,
Thanks for your comment. I certainly could have included additional hyperlinks. Here are a few that you may find interesting:
The following article provided by the New York Times News Service highlights Utah’s “emphasis on family” and how “local universities have played an important role in fostering homegrown talent.”
https://www.bendbulletin.com/business/5664739-151/the-next-tech-hub-utah
The following article highlights Utah’s “highly skilled, digital native workforce.”
https://schools.graniteschools.org/gti/files/2017/04/Why-Utah-Is-Poised-to-Be-Americas-Next-Tech-and-Creative-Hub.pdf
A mom in the following articles notes “developments that will support families.”
https://www.idigitalhealth.com/news/5-reasons-why-utah-is-a-health-it-hub-to-watch
Let me know if you’d like to see more. Howard Sierer
Hi Lisa, in the draft of this piece that I received, Mr. Sierer did include a couple of links that I neglected to include. I’ve added them back in. Thank you for calling it to my attention, and my apologies to Mr. Sierer for their omission.
Thanks, Jason.
Lisa,
Thanks for your comment. I certainly could have included additional hyperlinks. Here are a few that you may find interesting:
The following article provided by the New York Times News Service highlights Utah’s “emphasis on family” and how “local universities have played an important role in fostering homegrown talent.”
https://www.bendbulletin.com/business/5664739-151/the-next-tech-hub-utah
The following article highlights Utah’s “highly skilled, digital native workforce.”
https://schools.graniteschools.org/gti/files/2017/04/Why-Utah-Is-Poised-to-Be-Americas-Next-Tech-and-Creative-Hub.pdf
A mom in the following articles notes “developments that will support families.”
https://www.idigitalhealth.com/news/5-reasons-why-utah-is-a-health-it-hub-to-watch
Let me know if you’d like to see more. Howard Sierer
Thanks for these links. I’ll look into them. Here’s some information readers may find interesting. According to the April 15 Bonneville Monday Report Salt Lake County has a population of 6,500 18-21-year- olds, 14% of the total youth population. A Brookings report identified that 57% were looking for work and 28% are in poverty. Utah County has 10,900 18-21-year-olds, 12% of total youth population. 43% were looking for work and 28% were in poverty. This provides some detail on how Utah’s youth from large families are faring. Here’s more info: https://www.bonnevilleresearch.com/images/stories/Monday%20Report/Monday_Report_04-15-19.html
I prefer Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Salt Lake City is booming with one of the nation’s lowest unemployment rates. Thousands more jobs are available than their are workers to fill them. https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.ut_saltlakecity_msa.htm
The BLS shows that about 55 percent of youth ages 16-24 nationwide were employed in July 2018. Young people this age, often in school nine months of the year, find summer jobs. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2018/55-percent-of-16-to-24-year-olds-employed-in-july-2018.htm
Is Utah somehow an exception? Bonneville claims “57 percent” of young people are looking for work. It provides no source for its claim but that number flies in the face of reality. “Now hiring” signs appear in many fast food outlets all over Salt Lake and Utah counties as well as here in Washington County. As one employer told me, “If you can fog a mirror, you can get a job.” If you want one, that is.
Note that per the BLS data above, 45 precent of young people nationwide either don’t want a job or have jobs that aren’t counted by the BLS such as lawn care, child care and other “off the books” employment. This in a time when, for the first time in 50 years, there are a million unfilled jobs available around the country. Many of these are in low skill positions, e.g. fast food, where young people are readily hired.
Bonneville’s poverty rates are likewise misleading. Liberals love high poverty rates because in their minds they justify increased social program spending. But Bonneville’s claimed rates are for cash income only. They specifically do not include the variety of existing non-cash social programs such as SNAP (aka food stamps), Medicaid, Obamaphones, housing assistance, etc. When these programs are included, the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that only 3 percent of Americans live in poverty. https://www.nber.org/papers/w14827
Bonneville Research uses numbers with unstated sources that justify its policy recommendations. I’ll stick by my BLS numbers.