What Swing Voters Want
– By Howard Sierer –
Over 50 years ago, my mother was a “swing voter” who said she “voted for the best candidate” whether Democrat or Republican. Those were the days when most voters – and most candidates – clustered near the center of the political spectrum. Pres. Richard Nixon would be characterized today as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) by today’s GOP since many of his social policies were a lot closer to Sen. Mitt Romney than to Sen. Mike Lee.
Today’s swing voters are a still-large number of folks near the center of the political spectrum who vote for Democrats or Republicans not as much for the person as for how candidates stand on issues of concern to them.
Allow me to characterize all voters with a broad brush by dividing them as either fiscally conservative or fiscally liberal and either socially conservative or socially liberal. Those who are both fiscally and socially liberal vote Democratic. Those both fiscally and socially conservative vote Republican. There are too few socially liberal, fiscally conservative voters to matter.
There remains a surprisingly large number of voters who New York Times columnist David Leonhardt calls “Scaffles,” socially conservative and fiscally liberal. Scanning today’s leading candidates for President and Congress, these voters don’t find many who reflect their views, leaving them up for grabs in next year’s election.
There are plenty of reasons to think that “Scaffles” will decide which party controls the White House and Congress in 2025. Take a look at recent election results and nationwide polls that make it clear that candidates from both parties need to calibrate their views and their campaigns to resonate with these voters.
Leonhardt points out that Scaffles “have voted for progressive economic policies when they appear as ballot initiatives, even in red [Republican] states. Arkansas, Florida, Missouri and Nebraska, for instance, have passed minimum-wage increases. Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Utah passed initiatives that expanded Medicaid through Obamacare. Republicans without a college degree are often the ones who break with their party on these ballot initiatives.”
On the other hand, many Scaffles disagree with the Democratic social agenda. A New York Times poll last year showed most voters, including many Latinos, support the Republican position on illegal immigration. Another example: a recent KFF/Washington Post poll on transgender issues showed that most Americans oppose puberty-blocking treatments for children.
The beat goes on. Polling company Echelon Insights asked Hispanics to choose between alternative views on racism: “Racism is built into our society, including into its policies and institutions vs. Racism comes from individuals who hold racist views, not from our society and institutions.” The result: Hispanics endorsed the second, allegedly “conservative” statement that racism comes from individuals by 58-36, as did working-class (noncollege) voters by 57-33.
Gender identity? A recent USC Dornsife poll titled “What Americans Really Think About Controversial Topics in Schools” asked about the topics respondents thought elementary school students should be taught. Respondents agreed on many topics but just 29% agreed with progressives that elementary school children should learn about gender identity. The figure was even lower among working-class respondents.
The same survey also asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements about race in America including the classic: “Our goal as a society should be to treat all people the same without regard to the color of their skin”. A stunning 92% agreed. The public clearly isn’t buying progressive ideas like Critical Race Theory (CRT), the 1619 Project or the writings of avowed racist Ibram X. Kendi.
In a surprising finding, the survey found that most people who claim to have heard about CRT believe CRT includes this colorblind perspective, rather than directly contradicting it. Seems most of us just can’t believe that any theory that has anything to do with race would reject this fundamental principle.
The Democratic party has been captured by its small progressive wing, adopting socially liberal policies at odds with many black and Hispanic voters who describe themselves as social moderates or conservatives.
Why would the party do this? Follow the money. Many of the progressive elite are white, highly educated and, importantly, affluent. Democrats control about 60% of Congressional districts where median income exceeds the national average. Quoting former California House Speaker Jesse Unruh, “money is the mother’s milk of politics.”
So Scaffles find themselves looking both left and right. While many Scaffles can’t get comfortable with Democratic social policies, they also find it hard to support Republicans who are seen as all-too-ready to cut funding for programs important to them.
What’s a Scaffle to do? The answer to that question will be decided in November of next year by the candidates of both parties who can tread the fine line between their respective party’s policies and the views of Scaffles in their districts.
