Letter to the editor: How to defeat Donald Trump in 2020
The populist wave that Donald Trump rode on all the way into the White House is not unprecedented in the history of American politics. The degree to which the groupness within his in-group has crystallized appears hard to tell.
However, it appears clear that Trump understands that his chances for reelection hinge on his ability to maintain the sense of community within his in-group. It is within the realm of the preceding that one is to understand why Trump has yet not suspended his campaign, i.e. why he still organizes and attends rallies across the country. He understands that the maintenance of the sharp, antagonistic demarcation between his in-group and others, who combined make up the out-group, constitutes his greatest chance for reelection. The frequent demonstrations against him, the unceasing ridicule of him and his in-group, the scrutiny of every breath he takes, and the mainstream media’s entertainment of conspiratorial theories (his ties to Russia) merely aid him in his endeavor to maintain the sharp antagonistic demarcation between the in-group and out-group(s).
It seems that his opponents have yet to learn from the fatal errors made during the 2016 election. They are once again confirming his narrative and thus ensuring the cohesiveness and inner solidarity of his in-group. From this emerges the question as to what his opponents, particularly the Democratic Party and its next presidential candidate, ought to do. The voter turnout within Trump’s in-group must be reduced, and voters must be galvanized and mobilized behind the next Democratic candidate.
Avoid becoming an incentive to vote for Trump
The next Democratic presidential nominee must above all avoid making the same mistakes as Hillary Clinton.
A great deal of her campaign centered around the question as to whether Trump was fit for office. She criticized and attacked the normative properties and practices of Trump and his supporters. Consequently, she confirmed Trump´s narrative and reinforced the cohesiveness and inner solidarity of his in-group. By attacking Trump and his supporters on normative and ethical grounds, she became an incentive to vote for Trump.
She was also a historically unpopular candidate and broadly perceived as elitist and unrelatable, together with the fact that she and the Democratic Party failed to articulate policies that addressed the concern and problems of the so-called white working-class segment of the population.
She should have refrained from attacking the normative properties and practices of those supporting Trump. She should have attacked and criticized Trump, and him alone, on factual, logical, and rational grounds. By doing so, becoming an incentive to vote for Trump could have been avoided. By not constituting an incentive to vote for Trump, the voter turnout among Trump´s supporters could, perhaps, have been reduced.
Clinton lost Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which contained a total of 46 electoral votes by a combined margin of less than 101,000 votes. She could have been president today had she won these Rust Belt states.
The next Democratic presidential candidate should refrain from challenging the values and ways of life of Trump supporters from a normative or ethical perspective. He or she should insist on criticizing Trump and him alone on factual, logical, and rational grounds. This will most likely not prove adequate in breaking the seemingly unbreakable ties between Trump and the most loyal segment of his in-group. However, avoidance of becoming an incentive to vote for Trump may be attained this way.
I contend that the key to defeat Trump lies in the avoidance of becoming the unifying enemy in opposition to whom Trump can galvanize and mobilize his in-group. The next Democratic candidate must keep his or her criticism on a consensus-based level when compelled to address or comment on racism, sexism, etc. He or she must also insist on separating the extremist element of Trump supporters from the rest of Trump´s in-group. Most Trump supporters should be articulated as decent and hardworking Americans whose opinions, values, and concerns are to be taken seriously and honored. A likely result is that becoming a unifying enemy is avoided. This could lead to reduction in voter turnout among trump supporters.
How to mobilize voters against Trump in 2020
The question as to how the Democratic candidate can galvanize and mobilize his or her own base is rather crucial. Trump will indirectly but inevitably galvanize and mobilize his opponents. Trump’s base expects him to be and act like himself. He cannot afford to have his authenticity questioned and is hence compelled to give the middle finger to everything that has a slight touch of political correctness. This is necessary if he is to galvanize and mobilize his in-group in 2020 as he did in 2016.
I contend that he is compelled to adopt an even more divisive strategy in 2020, i.e. intensify his anti-establishment rhetoric and his sexist, racist, xenophobic, and Islamophobic appeals. While the economy remains a joker, I predict that the context will not be in Trump’s favor in 2020. In 2016, he was running as an outsider against Clinton, who was broadly viewed as the incarnation of Washington, and the first black president was finishing his second term in office. Trump cannot brand himself as an outsider who, with easy solutions, can solve all challenges in 2020 as he did in 2016.
In the process of galvanizing and mobilizing his in-group, Trump will indirectly but inevitably galvanize, mobilize, and perhaps unify anyone who did not vote out of discontent with Clinton and those who did not vote because they thought Clinton would win by a landslide. The next Democratic candidate should therefore focus on claiming the moral higher ground by adopting a humble and inclusive strategic approach.
Obama won a conclusive victory in 2008, partly because he adopted an inclusive approach and because his personal American identity resonated with many Americans. The Clinton campaign adopted a rather divisive strategy in 2016 that focused on building a coalition of educated whites along with racial and ethnic minorities while opponents were belittled and dismissed as racist, deplorables, etc. If the next Democratic presidential nominee adopts the present strategy, then the White House is fairly within reach.
—Jamal Abdi, London
The viewpoints expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Independent.
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